Posts tagged ‘economics’
May 21, 2009
In a recent interview with Paul Solman, behavioral economist Dan Ariely asserted that financial cheating might result when people deal in abstract vehicles rather than tangible cash. His experiments even show that “New York bankers are the only group that cheats more, much more, by about twice as much”. A possible root cause: the abstract nature of financial instruments with which bankers deal. Ariely then suggested that for a bank to succeed in the future might depend upon maintaining transparent relationships with its customers.
Leading to our financial crisis, the securitization of loans raised a similar abstraction layer between borrowers and lenders. In his experiments, Dan might consider studying the degree to which a borrower tends to obscure her genuine capacity to repay debt.
The title of his recently revised and expanded book has a certain degree of irony. Will we ever reach a point when a model can accurately predict irrationality? The ease with which computers calculate intricate formulas often deceives the unsuspecting with an unfounded sense of accuracy. Next time around, will more transparency and the stream of information that ensues enable clever minds to build more accurate algorithms for irrationality?